12/24/2023 0 Comments The shadow you fear![]() Perhaps it’s no coincidence that every property manager I’ve encountered since we bought our house is associated with an Arlington-based firm that makes “distressed-property investments.” The rental home was bought at the peak of the market in 2007, which should tell you all you need to know about the sophistication of these owners.Īs my wife and I have watched various managers handle the house over the past four years, I feel like we’ve been taking a Master’s-level course in how not to manage a property. In the Arlington tax records, the property is listed as being owned by a tiny LLC. My wife and I bought a Cape Cod in Arlington, Va., that sits near a rental home. That year, as shadow market fears began to materialize, I experienced another side of the story. It was falling apart, the owners weren’t responsive, and it had basically been trashed by generations of 20-something guys (excluding myself and my college friends, of course).īut that experience was 10 years in the rearview mirror come 2010. I lived in such a house for two years (though, admittedly, I was far less than an institutional-grade renter at that point in life). But I’ve had my own, personal reasons for discounting the ability of single-family homes to lure institutional-grade renters. Those were certainly compelling reasons to dismiss any real shadow-market threat. And as stories began to circulate about renters in single-family homes being booted out when their residences went into foreclosure, signing that lease became a little more of a perilous undertaking. First and foremost, many of the foreclosed single-family homes popping up in recent years have been too far into the hinterland (think the Inland Empire in California) to provide any sort of competition for urban, or even close-in suburban, apartments. In a market where renters were seeking value, a four- or five-bedroom single-family house at $2,000 a month made a lot more sense to budget-conscious families and kids just out of college than a two-bedroom apartment at $2,000.ĭespite the fear in the market, both during the downturn and since, there remains many reasons why the highest-level apartment owners shouldn’t lose any sleep over the matter. Those concerns make sense and crept up during the Great Recession, when some observers feared that foreclosed single-family properties would be turned into rentals. As the housing market begins to stabilize, some renters are leaving apartment communities for single family homes.” Here’s an excerpt: “Shadow housing space from single-family homes, vacant condominiums and condo conversion projects provides alternative options for potential apartment renters in markets like Florida, Phoenix and Southern California in particular. Often, as in the case of Denver-based UDR and Chicago-based Equity Residential this past quarter, those risk factors include the “shadow market.” In its quarterly financial reports, New York–based investment banking firm Sandler O’Neill + Partners lists several risk factors for a number of the apartment REITs it covers.
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